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Trying to keep my sanity low level....

Discussion in 'Game Discussion' started by flibbidy dibbidy, 11 Aug 2017.

  1. retryW

    retryW Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    13 Jun 2017
    Messages:
    471
    Yeah this really sucks, and with such a big influx of new players, it's going to be hard to actually retain any of them.
    The game itself is definitely not pay to win at all, and the progress used to be fairly linear (I was at 700 infamy as mk2 and it was still only mk2 and 3s). The issue is there were a lot of people purposely losing infamy to play against easy players, but ALSO there are so many more players, that even the lower level ones have had time to upgrade their ships. The infamy ladder is WAY too condensed now. We need to have it pushed out some.
     
  2. SharkTank

    SharkTank Active Member

    Joined:
    19 May 2017
    Messages:
    155
    1. I've had TWO seven game winning streaks over a three day period in the past WEEK!!! See attached SS. And I know I've had more wins and losses like that... but only had to go back four days in my log to show this absurdity.

    2. The chances of 7 in a row in a true 50/50 coin flip is a 1 in 128 chance. And yet I did that twice over about 60 games in a three-day period!!!! Plus I had a six game losing streak between those winning streaks. This is proving my point. Over about 60 games, I had two 7-game winning streaks and one 6-game losing streak. This is way outside standard probability in a true 50/50 game.

    3 - Are you showing my streaks against others' streaks on the graph? Or what we would expect to see of my streaks v the total number of games I've played? I'm not sure what you're trying to show with it.

    ps - I'm pretty sure I lost about 9 in 10 games last week when I dropped 2-300 infamy in an hour. My log doesn't go back that far, but I bet if you actually looked, you would see it.
     

    Attached Files:

    Last edited: 14 Aug 2017
  3. Flying Bananasaur

    Flying Bananasaur Active Member

    Joined:
    13 Jun 2017
    Messages:
    256
    Variance, people, variance
     
  4. CheekyDevilGod

    CheekyDevilGod Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    23 May 2017
    Messages:
    851
    Well

    If it was EXACTLY 50/50 then nobody would be rising in infamy, we'd all win 1 match and lose 1 match and we'd all be at 100 infamy no?.

    The matchmaking puts you in matches where it thinks you have a 50/50 chance of getting a win, to actualky secure a win or not is at the end in your hands, yourmentality, skills and items.
     
  5. NinjaHuntX

    NinjaHuntX New Member

    Joined:
    2 Jul 2017
    Messages:
    5
    I was at 2k Infamy before the global release and now im at 1.4k infamy the matchmaking system before was actually better
     
  6. Flying Bananasaur

    Flying Bananasaur Active Member

    Joined:
    13 Jun 2017
    Messages:
    256
    It hasn't changed since the beginning....
     
  7. NinjaHuntX

    NinjaHuntX New Member

    Joined:
    2 Jul 2017
    Messages:
    5
    Maybe you're right and im just confused, Just frustrated by losing all the time
     
  8. Miika

    Miika Game Lead

    Joined:
    29 Mar 2017
    Messages:
    953
    Sorry, the data was represented slightly confusingly and therefore had off-by-one error. Streak of 0 mean you had just won/loss once, and streak of 1 meant you had won/loss twice in the row. Here is an updated graph where the"won once" and "lost once" have been separated to their own bars. The 0 bar means draws, something that a coin toss obviously does not produce. Therefore you are right you had one 8 wins long streak, not 7 like I said earlier.

    However, the conclusion still stays the same. Your battles follow the expected probabilities very closely.
    win-loss-streaks.png

    No it's not. It means you can't zoom into an local statistical anomaly and expect the probabilities to be noise free. A real life analogy: You diligently buy a lottery ticket for 40 years and you finally win. You can't say "I've already won once this month, that's 1/4 chance, lottery is rigged!". Or well you can, but it doesn't make any sense.

    It is showing your streaks versus streaks when a coin is flipped randomly. The percentage is the normalized amount. i.e. number of the streaks divided by the total amount of battles/flips. For example, number 4 means you that is the amount of battles you won 4 times in a row. And -4 means that is the amount of battles you lost in a row.

    You have exactly one 9 game losing streak, and three 8 game losing streaks. All within expected probabilities, both actually slightly less than expected.
     
    Miathan and Flying Bananasaur like this.
  9. Crashedup

    Crashedup Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    3 Aug 2017
    Messages:
    863
    True.
    Upto 1000 infamy it's crazy with so many ships with more than 2 epic items or lvl3 rare items and even mk5 in as low as 6-700 infamy makes it annoying I too cannot break 1000 infamy due this and the fact the good items which I want r hard to get.
    Rather than it being on ship based the rewards in the game should be based on leagues rather than wholly on dmg done so that it will promote players too move onto better league to get better rewards rather than tanking infamy
     
  10. NaruDestroyer

    NaruDestroyer Member

    Joined:
    18 Jun 2017
    Messages:
    98
    If you want to break a loosing streak brother, totally stop playing alone if possible. Always play in fleet with a good partner. Believe me it helps a lot. Also if you fleet up with a player who currently is having good matchmaking, that sometimes helps too.
     
  11. Netsa

    Netsa Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    9 May 2017
    Messages:
    541
    Had a 14 win streak last night, broken by a bad Chill Zone decision. It sucked, I was one away from the achievement.

    Not saying anything about win chances, I just wanted to blurt that out somewhere.
     
  12. CheekyDevilGod

    CheekyDevilGod Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    23 May 2017
    Messages:
    851
    When the game simply hates you
     

    Attached Files:

    Cyn likes this.
  13. retryW

    retryW Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    13 Jun 2017
    Messages:
    471
    You're running triple mortar, two of which are long range. I hate you more than the game does ;)
     
    NaruDestroyer and Shadow Moon! like this.
  14. CheekyDevilGod

    CheekyDevilGod Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    23 May 2017
    Messages:
    851
    Not my fault the game only give me mortars to shoot with
     
    NaruDestroyer likes this.
  15. disorder

    disorder Active Member

    Joined:
    7 Jun 2017
    Messages:
    386
    => for fun/test i create a 2nd account... with my 5K fight in my main account i jump to 700 infamy, (first of my league a green reward... useless) at mk2 and fight against mk3,MK4,MK5, even Mk6...
    as an old player i can fight them (i'm really good now at leadshot, and know well the map.

    But for starting player with grey/green item with no T2 (captain can't reach T2 soon, except canon) fighting these monster must be a fucking bad joke.
    lots of new player will certainly leave game really quickly, it's impossible for them. except if they pay...

    But Rovio lost lots of money since 2013 (end of lead with angrybirds) and perhaps this game is just a moneymaker waiting for their next game?
     
    Crashedup, Netsa and monobrow like this.
  16. Crashedup

    Crashedup Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    3 Aug 2017
    Messages:
    863
    Dude there's a difference between AVG and mode for this situation u need to find the mode not AVG as AVG depends highly on good players infamy there r lot of Mk4 who reach close too 3k infamy which boosts. The avg
     
  17. Flying Bananasaur

    Flying Bananasaur Active Member

    Joined:
    13 Jun 2017
    Messages:
    256
    If the sample distribution is skewed, then the median is used for statistical analysis, not the mode. The mode is hardly ever used in statistical analysis because it almost never represents the vast majority of the population. The median, however, does account for skewing of the data because it resistant to outliers. But as Miika has stated before, the infamy distribution for mks are approximately normally distributed, so the mean can be used, accounting for variance and such.
     
    Miathan likes this.
  18. NaruDestroyer

    NaruDestroyer Member

    Joined:
    18 Jun 2017
    Messages:
    98
    Basically he plays artillery. My personal record is 14000+ damage and defeat. I wanted to throw my phone out the window but my supernatural self-constraint helped me not to do so. :rolleyes:
     
  19. NaruDestroyer

    NaruDestroyer Member

    Joined:
    18 Jun 2017
    Messages:
    98
    Don't you have a sniper cannon or something?
     

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