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Rovio messes with RNG

Discussion in 'Game Discussion' started by xxxBISMARCKxxx, 28 Aug 2017.

  1. xxxBISMARCKxxx

    xxxBISMARCKxxx Well-Known Member

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    Pretty big accusation to say that Rovio messes with RNG, but it's too much to be a coincidence.

    Summary: the crew training trees in which you have the least training in will weight item RNG to give you a higher chance of receiving items that require training in that tree.

    ------
    Example- have Dr. Buzzkill barely leveled at all. Just at level 2 since I haven't been playing ships with yellow slots. After saving up for a 3900 box that had 2 epic Tesla shields, I am now sitting on 4 epic Tesla shields. (Otherwise I the most epics I have received of anything is 2). But that's not all, that set of boxes also gave me 3 rare Tesla shields (!!).

    Example 2- I used to use grenade before I switched off it because I couldn't ever even get 1 more grenade to level up the rare I was using. So now Isaak has become my 2nd or 3rd least-leveled tree over time, since I stopped leveling him. Well guess what, now that Isaak is one of my least-leveled trees I am on a string of grenades, having got 5 grenades in the last 2 weeks. This is just from normal weekly type of rare boxes and combining red pieces, no other purchasing.

    Example 3- Once I started to realize what was up I looked back and realized it explained some other weird RNG streaks I had been on farther back in time. Like when all I wanted was a second rare turbo, and I bought blue piece after blue piece and opened up all these boxes hoping for it. What I did get was SIX rudders and 2epic gearlubea since of course I hadn't gone far into Burnice's tree.

    Example 4- this is actually an example that worked out for me. Another farther back in time example. I was using sniper cannon as my long range weapon and I was just stuck forever at rare level 2. Buying red pieces over and over and over and opening those 2 or 3 rare boxes every week like,omg please for the love of God how can I not be getting another sniper after all these tries. But what I was getting was a) a ton of mortars of all kinds since that tree wasn't leveled and b) so many rare missiles, missile after missile like how can I be getting this many missiles. So I finally started to level up Blastian since I didn't have him leveled much at all. Now looking back I realize, of course. That's why I now have enough rare missiles to go to level 5 rare eventually. Because Blastian wasn't leveled past like 3. But as I mentioned this did end happily since I do love those missiles lol...

    Anyways I am making this thread assuming that other people have gone through the same thing and will respond.
     
  2. Joey who

    Joey who Well-Known Member

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  3. Miika

    Miika Game Lead

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    All I can say is two words: Not true.
     
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  4. Joey who

    Joey who Well-Known Member

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    I'm sure at some points RNG was altered for some reasons. Like when you could mass scrap commons for often legendary pieces. But I don't feel they changed it to your specific low trained crew members although you might have gave them a clever idea :mad::rolleyes:
     
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  5. Joey who

    Joey who Well-Known Member

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    Also @Miika if you'd care to answer, what do higher badges give us? Some people say it improves RNG for us
     
  6. Cpt Obvious

    Cpt Obvious Well-Known Member

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    Counter anecdote:
    I only use shooter and all training is focused on cannons, mortars and plates (+some speed). In the few big boxes I've managed to scrape together enough perls for I've mostly gotten equipment good for a speeder or enforcer. Several Tesla shields, the epic gun I have most duplicates of is the carronade, etc.

    Most of these flat earth theories are bullshit, and the best litmus test for them is: "Is it simple? Is it easy to make?". Developers are lazy, truly lazy, they would never add a big convoluted system for something where a call to random() would get you 95% of the way. This especially goes for game development, which is one of the most rushed and time critical type of software dev out there, game devs are constantly pushed to get stuff to market as fast as possible. (I'm a software dev).
     
    Last edited: 28 Aug 2017
  7. xxxBISMARCKxxx

    xxxBISMARCKxxx Well-Known Member

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    Well,your anecdote agreed but I don't really think I'm proposing some big complicated system. For ex.: RNG = a bucket full of crew member balls, # of balls in bucket for each crew member =31 - crew member level. Result of hamster wheel++ is preferable to a vanilla RNG isn't it.
     
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  8. Cpt Obvious

    Cpt Obvious Well-Known Member

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    True, but then you've created a catch-22 for players: I really want a mortar, but I'm not going to train Mortimer before I get a decent level one, which means I'll never get a mortar.

    To solve this, you either need to inform the players (they have not), or you need to create a weighted random system where all the items are still in play, and down the rabbit hole we go :)

    Besides, I bet the devs want variety in setups.
     
  9. disorder

    disorder Active Member

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    Interesting
    Enforcer here, nothing for torpedo or mine up in captain, i always gain torpedo or mine...
    No grenade (t1 epic since 5 month)
    No flaregun (t3 rare since 3 month)
     
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  10. xxxBISMARCKxxx

    xxxBISMARCKxxx Well-Known Member

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    As expected. Thanks for your input.

    That's the opposite of a catch-22 because what I have described would give them mortars. Btw, it would also give them mortars when they haven't leveled mortars because they don't like them at all, don't find them fun/inspiring/fitting their playstyle etc..
     
  11. Cpt Obvious

    Cpt Obvious Well-Known Member

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    Ah, I see that I misread you while on mobile, sorry about that, you meant the other way around. Still, I wouldn't want it to be that way, that would certainly be annoying.:)

    Any way, our anecdotes are easily explained by https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clustering_illusion and not Rovio fudging the RNG :)
     
    Last edited: 28 Aug 2017
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  12. xxxBISMARCKxxx

    xxxBISMARCKxxx Well-Known Member

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    You haven't really explained how what you linked applies here. I think that applies more to win/loss streaks. Harder to say it's just an illusion when I've got the items sitting in my inventory to prove it isn't. Unless you were to say that my original examples and the examples of others are all just COINCIDENCE and that there are some non-sock puppets out there who are getting items in their most-leveled trees over and over. (Which we haven't heard of.)

    For me the idea of a vanilla RNG jumped the shark with the Tesla shields in my original example, and made me look back and realize what had been going on all along. And I don't think anyone could disagree that what I have observed- which increases the grind- tends to benefit Rovio. Hell, that's the point of this whole RNG system in the first place, right? To increase the grind?
     
  13. Miika

    Miika Game Lead

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    The link means that human brains are really sensitive to pattern recognition, up to a degree that humans more often than not see false patterns in random data. It's not an illusion that you got those items. The illusion is the connection you have made with something else in the game.

    There is also another term for this tendency: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apophenia
    "Apophenia has come to imply a universal human tendency to seek patterns in random information, such as gambling."

    As I replied already earlier there is no such thing happening. All items (within the same rarity) have the same drop rate and nothing alters those probabilities. What you are seeing is just random and your brains trying to find patterns from the random occurrences.
     
  14. xxxBISMARCKxxx

    xxxBISMARCKxxx Well-Known Member

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    I would prefer to believe you, but at some point the actual facts must take precedence over words we want to be true. Beyond that, I don't think you would even try to deny that an increased grind would tend to be preferable to Rovio. So there's observation and motivation vs. your words here. Sorry...

    Anyways the facts are that the "RNG" has been spitting out, with a HIGH degree of preference, items favoring less-leveled trees. See again my initial examples above. See again the only other examples here which agree with those observations. You're saying it's all a big coincidence... which means there is therefore a reasonably large (I've seen a number of rants on the forum which are in effect agreeing with my analysis) group of people out there who only leveled a few trees and keep getting repeat items in those trees, right? Since that's what would be the only thing which would make your statement potentially true?
     
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  15. Jdm7

    Jdm7 Active Member

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    This is an interesting thread in which even though it's claimed to be false it seems to happen more often than not in my case as well. This is the one major flaw I see in this game not being able to control your own destiny as far as upgrades go.
     
  16. Stelmo

    Stelmo Well-Known Member

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    After Bhurt, Isak is my highest level captain and just about always has been with Blastian coming in after that. My least levelled captain is Brock.

    I only need one more epic grenade for T5, I have epic T4 tritorps, T3 sniper and a couple of blast cannons.
    I got my first and only big shield a few days ago.
    If anything my data would indicate the opposite of what you're saying.

    (100% f2p and apart from my first two grenades I got everything from the new system before you get into that)
     
  17. Miathan

    Miathan Well-Known Member

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    You're making an error here. You are saying that your personal example has to be countered with a "reasonably large group of people". That makes no sense. And whether a handful of forum users say that the same happens to them makes no difference. This game is very big, and very many items are given out. Many cases like your own will happen in a random system. This is no indication that the system is not random, or that the RNG is "messed" with. Your example alone means nothing. If you could collect reliable data from a thousand people, and they show the same pattern as you do, maybe then you could make a point. But you can't get that data. Only Rovio can. Which is why I don't see a reason not to believe Miika.
     
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  18. Dirtylegs

    Dirtylegs Member

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    Bismarck I initially thought you were being ironic but you seem to genuinely believe this. Anecdotal evidence does not refute standard variance. E.g. I have trained Bhurt & Sinclair to level 3 evo but haven't even hired blastian yet. Out of the 157 rares I've got so far I got my first and only rare mine yesterday but have 6 copies of sniper, cannon, blast cannon and swift torp. I could have posted a thread with the opposite hypothesis to you which would have been equally baseless.
     
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  19. xxxBISMARCKxxx

    xxxBISMARCKxxx Well-Known Member

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    How do you know you have got 157 rares?
     
  20. Miathan

    Miathan Well-Known Member

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    there's an achievement that tracks the amount of rares obtained
     
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