Honestly --- most of you should skip this and go to the suggestion post:
https://forum.battlebay.net/threads/a-brighter-future.24384/
... unless you're a developer and want an outside opinion on why the game is struggling ... or want a quick business lesson (or want a small window into what I do for a living).
tl;dr: Issues in the legendary pricing model have exposed BB's over-reliance on Whales. The response to falling sales has been to over-monetize every aspect of the game. This has alienated players and is causing an early demise for the game. The only successful path from here is fix the paywall issues and transition to a more balanced monetization model.
I. BATTLEBAY'S MOST SIGNIFICANT ISSUE
Falling revenue.
A. What have been the effects?
Spoiler: More
Updates are rushed and untested.
Bugs and Issues go unresolved.
New items are severely unbalanced.
Non-revenue-generating portions are de-prioritized.
Halted advertising outside of the Rovio sphere.
Over-monetization of every aspect.
Alienation of the players.
And, the creation of a reputation for only making p2w games.
II. MAIN CAUSE
The game's monetization model is reliant on Whales each spending tens of thousands - every business quarter.
Spoiler: Answer
This model worked well initially but it is not well-suited to work well long-term with the current game structure. Regardless of what new items you create, event perks you sell, it is not going to solve the issue - nor will switching ranked to HCTDM.
A. Why the reliance on Whales?
Spoiler: Answer
Presumably, less than 10-20% of players have spent real money on the game. Of those spenders, the top 10-20% have likely generated 80% of the sales or more. If so, it's not surprising to see a monetization model that focused so heavily on whales.
III. MONETIZATION MODEL
Note: How is revenue viewed by managers and shareholders?
Spoiler: Answer
On a quarter to quarter basis. It doesn't matter if the game made $10 million in the first quarter if it's barely breaking even in Q4.
The initial explosion of revenue likely created unrealistic sales forecasts for the future. When those forecasts weren't met, managers probably cut costs (e.g., reduced the staff numbers and advertising expenses).
As odd as it seems, they would be far more optimistic about a game that made $2M in Q1, $2.3M in Q2, $2.6M in Q3, and $3M in Q4 - even though that's less revenue than $10M upfront (with the time value of money).
A. What are the largest issues with the Monetization Model?
1) Whale Monetization
Spoiler: Note About Whales:
Some spend hundreds of thousands on houses, cars, boats, vacations, gambling ... and some enjoy mobile gaming .. In my experience, whales might be a bit hedonistic in their spending, but they are very rational thinkers; they simply have a larger budget for entertainment than most.
In turn for their investments, they get entertainment, recognition, a voice in game direction, and even some fans - or bit of fame for the streamers.
So, to be clear, I'm glad the game gets their support .. They drive the majority of the game development. However, it is not sustainable to rely solely on their support to remain profitable.
Why have Whales stopped spending as much?
a. Cheaper Alternatives
** MAIN REASON FOR LOSS OF REVENUE **
Spoiler: More
i) Competitive Advantage
When Whales spend large sums of money, they expect an advantage.
Legendary Event Perks offer far more of an advantage than Legendary Items ever did and for less than 1% of the cost. For a few hundred dollars spend on selected events, Whales are able to purchase this advantage while the vast majority of other players view the cost as too high (or refuse to purchase event perks on principle).
The availability of this alternative has devalued the worth of legendary items - and severely lessened whale willingness to spend tens of thousands for them.
In other words, if they can buy a massive advantage for a few hundred here and there, why would they ever spend tens of thousands on a smaller, competitively balanced advantage?
ii) Exclusivity
Whales want exclusivity for thier investment. And the (much cheaper) maxed epic versions of new items meet that criteria as it'll take years for most players to acquire a similar level item.
This obviously is another reason that lessens the desire to purchase legendary items.
b. Prohibitive Cost of Additional Items
Spoiler: Note on Legendary Pricing ...
In theory, it would cost around $60k USD for 6 legendary duplicates of all 40 items (with perfect RNG drops, including the 25 free items in achievements).
But, players also need 4000 legendary powercells to max them all. Assuming a whale had a few hundred leg PCs from epic scrapping, they would still need to scrap roughly 3800 L1 legendary items - which increases the price to over $1 million USD.
As far as I know, no one has managed to max out even half of the legendary items in the game. Most of the largest spenders likely have less than 8-10. This is an indication of a poor pricing model.
i) Lower Demand
On average (speculating a bit), it probably cost around $100k for the legendary duplicates and powercells to max out 6 legendary items - or $16-17,000 per item. Rationally, they viewed the strongest, best items as worth the expense.
However, once their favorites were maxed, the next six items - less popular, powerful items - were valued at a much lower level, so there was far less desire to purchase these items.
ii) Lower Odds
Some items were buffed and some new items were created. Whales may value a few of these items as high as the other items they purchased, but the odds of acquiring those items increase the cost far beyond where they value them - particulary since new items and a fifth item type have been added.
For instance, if a whale wanted a max legendary large bandage, it would cost nearly $67,000 USD (based on RNG drop percentages) - far more than the $16-17k they spent per item initally.
c. Future Outlook
Spoiler: More
As I mentioned, Whales tend to be rational thinkers. If they have doubts about the game's ability to remain a going concern (i.e., remain in business), they are far less likely to invest that type of money in a game that no one is playing in a year's time.
To sum all that up:
Spoiler: Answer
The pricing model only works ...
if Whales really want several upper tier Legendary Items at once,
if there is no cheaper alternative for a competitive edge or for exclusivity, AND
if they are confident in the game's ability to remain financially stable.
But, it's important to remember that Whales are similar to other spenders. They will spend considerable amounts of money over time on a game if the price is right and if the individual sums are small enough. If, however, they hit a steep enough paywall, say $50-$60k for the next item they want, they're far less likely to take that step.
2. Occassional to Moderate Spenders
Spoiler: More
Why have occassional spenders and baby whales stopped spending as much?
a. The time and resources it takes to build items is considerable. Most of the moderate spenders won't purchase more items until they've cleared space in their inventory.
b. The occassional spenders are likely stuck behind a PC paywall. These players are more susceptible to sudden paywalls (e.g., powercell paywall), and will stop spending money when they hit the wall.
c. Similiar to the issue with Legendary Items, players prioritize the best items, so building additional (less-popular, less powerful) items aren't valued as highly or prioritized as strongly.
3. F2p players
Spoiler: More
Some f2p players will never spend money on a game. Some would if the pricing was more affordable.
Regardless, these players are vital to your success. They increase the game's popularity, increase the popularity of your streamers, refer friends to the game, make the leaderboard more prestigious to climb, they watch ads and increase the amount you're able to charge for ad-spots with their view counts, and many will likely become spending customers one day.
But, they expect a reasonable rate of progression and a competitively-balance game between them and paying customers. If these players are neglected, they will depart for any number of games with a better competitive balance. Without these players, the whales will not be interested in sticking around. They want a large audience - a popular game - and aren't interested in only playing against other whales.