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Guild Raffle - Over 400K tokens spent, data inside.

Discussion in 'Game Discussion' started by CaffeinatedChris, 22 Feb 2018.

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  1. CaffeinatedChris

    CaffeinatedChris MVP

    Joined:
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    So a few days ago I made this promise:

    While I got a bit of a mixed bag on the board (red/green/blue, and no healing perks) I couldn't sit on a full batch of tokens on two accounts and not spin them. So here we go!

    Between both of my accounts, I had approximately 430K in tokens to spend. This resulted in a grand total of 179 rolls - 165 on the Regular board, and 14 on the Legendary.

    First off, let's look at the roll results by the slot they landed on:

    roll_1.gif

    While some slot results were less frequent than others, this is what we expect to see from a truly random system. Next up, I broke down the rolls by the type of prize they awarded, and compared the expected odds (based on number of tiles that would give that result) versus the measured result:

    roll_2.gif

    Despite that ugly feeling that you're "always getting powercells" - no, you really aren't. In an individual batch of a couple dozen rolls perhaps, but over time, it does trend towards proper randomness.

    That's not to say that you can have some wildly anomalous results. My last two Rare Blue piece combines have given me the only item I can use; a Rare Big Shield. I made a successful 1 in 6 roll twice. And if that's not crazy enough for you, how about this result from a Free Crate:

    common_box.jpg

    That's two full Rare items, a 0.5% chance each, in one crate; a 1 in 40,000 chance.

    But I still can't win even a bloody coffee in Roll Up The Rim.
     
    CaffeinatedChris, 22 Feb 2018
    #1
    Jumppanen, TheAntiSnipe, JiminyKicket and 12 others like this.
  2. A55A51N

    A55A51N Well-Known Member

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    63025C9A-5EE7-4AEC-8A3D-91E8B2270CAA.jpeg
     
    A55A51N, 22 Feb 2018
    #2
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  3. CaffeinatedChris

    CaffeinatedChris MVP

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    Mine must have malfunctioned, because I got

    2x Tokens
    2x Epic Perk
    4x Legendary Piece
    5x Epic Parts
    1x Pearls

    A good showing from the Legendary Pieces, but what I'd really like is the Epic Sniper Cannon on my bonus board.

    In the interest of more data, the regular board resulted in:

    17x Tokens
    31x Perks
    39x Pieces
    43x Parts
    18x Cells
    17x Pearls
     
    Last edited: 22 Feb 2018
    CaffeinatedChris, 22 Feb 2018
    #3
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  4. envylife

    envylife Well-Known Member

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    I've tracked raffle for 45 rounds, the distribution seems fair overall. I've paid particular attention to the legendary rounds and they've been a little heavy on pearls and legendary cells, and a little light on epic perks/items/parts. The most excruciating stat is that I'm now 25 legendary spins without landing on a legendary piece... but statistically it's not completely out of line as I received a handful of pieces... long ago.
     
    envylife, 22 Feb 2018
    #4
  5. Zachiderp

    Zachiderp Well-Known Member

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    Hmm... You got zero items... There goes my hopes on getting an epic blast cannon ;-;
     
    Zachiderp, 23 Feb 2018
    #5
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  6. CaffeinatedChris

    CaffeinatedChris MVP

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    Oh believe me, I'd love to have gotten the Epic Sniper Cannon that's taunting me there. But it's only a 1 in 12, and I got 7 rolls on that board. Unlikely.
     
    CaffeinatedChris, 23 Feb 2018
    #6
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  7. nosesabe

    nosesabe Well-Known Member

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    I got a epic sniper cannon (which I didn’t want) a epic blast cannon and a epic flare in the 13 round... not many pieces tho haha I was lucky I guess
     
    nosesabe, 23 Feb 2018
    #7
  8. DrLuigiPhd

    DrLuigiPhd Active Member

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    In one week I once pulled the same legendary piece 4 times in a row on the bonus board. It would have been awesome except they were green pieces and I’m no fixer.
     
    DrLuigiPhd, 23 Feb 2018
    #8
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  9. Stelmo

    Stelmo Well-Known Member

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    Haha I got that sniper:)
    I've added it to my list of things I don't have the cells to evolve to T4..
     
    Stelmo, 23 Feb 2018
    #9
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  10. TTrain

    TTrain Member

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    Awesome info! I love it! Your time, effort, and patience is greatly appreciated! :D
     
    TTrain, 24 Feb 2018
    #10
  11. Charlotte Douche

    Charlotte Douche Well-Known Member

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    Location:
    Douch Land
    Mostly got unwanted stuff, but sold for alot of gold
     
    Charlotte Douche, 24 Feb 2018
    #11
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  12. CaffeinatedChris

    CaffeinatedChris MVP

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    Nice haul! I'll have to review and analyze your rolls later to see how your data stacks up with the current trends.
     
    CaffeinatedChris, 24 Feb 2018
    #12

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