Guild Raffle - Over 400K tokens spent, data inside.

So a few days ago I made this promise:

While I got a bit of a mixed bag on the board (red/green/blue, and no healing perks) I couldn't sit on a full batch of tokens on two accounts and not spin them. So here we go!

Between both of my accounts, I had approximately 430K in tokens to spend. This resulted in a grand total of 179 rolls - 165 on the Regular board, and 14 on the Legendary.

First off, let's look at the roll results by the slot they landed on:



While some slot results were less frequent than others, this is what we expect to see from a truly random system. Next up, I broke down the rolls by the type of prize they awarded, and compared the expected odds (based on number of tiles that would give that result) versus the measured result:



Despite that ugly feeling that you're "always getting powercells" - no, you really aren't. In an individual batch of a couple dozen rolls perhaps, but over time, it does trend towards proper randomness.

That's not to say that you can have some wildly anomalous results. My last two Rare Blue piece combines have given me the only item I can use; a Rare Big Shield. I made a successful 1 in 6 roll twice. And if that's not crazy enough for you, how about this result from a Free Crate:



That's two full Rare items, a 0.5% chance each, in one crate; a 1 in 40,000 chance.

But I still can't win even a bloody coffee in Roll Up The Rim.

 

Mine must have malfunctioned, because I got

2x Tokens
2x Epic Perk
4x Legendary Piece
5x Epic Parts
1x Pearls

A good showing from the Legendary Pieces, but what I'd really like is the Epic Sniper Cannon on my bonus board.

In the interest of more data, the regular board resulted in:

17x Tokens
31x Perks
39x Pieces
43x Parts
18x Cells
17x Pearls

 

Oh believe me, I'd love to have gotten the Epic Sniper Cannon that's taunting me there. But it's only a 1 in 12, and I got 7 rolls on that board. Unlikely.

 

Nice haul! I'll have to review and analyze your rolls later to see how your data stacks up with the current trends.