Ship pieces : biased ?

The chances to get 100 ship pieces when spending 20 event coins is 80%, and something like 18% to get 300 pieces and 2% to get 3000 pieces.
Until recently it seemed correct, I got 100 pieces most of the time, but 300 pieces quite often, and a few times 3000 pieces.
But since about 2 weeks, I noticed that I got only 100 pieces. I started to count, now it's confirmed that I had 100 pieces 19 times in a row. The actual number being significantly larger since I wasn't paying attention. There is only 1.4% chance to get 100 pieces 19 times in a row.

Is the game cheating on these probabilities?

 

Statistically it's possible to get +100 a million times in a row... just the odds are really low. Statistically 19 samples isn't quite enough to draw a conclusion.

In the events last summer we had rare/epic/legendary piece probabilities that were 70%/20%/10%. I only wanted Epic.
I tracked 168 straight draws, but only got Epics 9.5% of the time rather than the stated 20%. Not converging on the stated odds after an inarguably statistically signifiant number of tries is where I raised concerns similar to you. Odds of this happening is <1%, but still within the realm of possibility. I opened a support ticket on this and they checked RNG and didn't find an issue.

I had a much stronger case than you, so all I would recommend is that you keep tracking as you approach triple digit tries to see if it evens out... will take over 2000 coins to get there.

 

As far as I know, the odds are for each open box and not cumulative. You can open 1000 boxes, and this does not increase the chance of getting a better item, because the percentage will always be the same for each box.

In my opinion this is ridiculous, and I think they should have a system similar to hearthstone ... That is, if in X numbers of boxes does not come at least 1 epic item, the next box is guaranteed to have.

 

I'm only up to 13!

 

Agreed. Many games do this.. and in fact Battle Bay used to do this for event boxes. The reasons given for removing it are laughable... but it's their game. They can do what they want, and the result of not listening to players is a mass exodus. Good job Rovio.

 

As they say, don’t bite the hand that feeds you.