Fate vs "Free Will"...

I want to understand this because it does sap some of the enjoyment from the game for me. Others complain about the matchmaking so I'm not the only one.
This thread isn't quite about matchmaking though.

I've seen mentions that the developers have put a system in place to give players a 50/50 win ratio. Again, I could be understanding wrong, it's not a 50/50 chance of winning but you will win or you will lose.
Checking profiles the lowest lost ratio I've seen,when the game still showed ratio, was 48%, the highest 53% so, pretty dern close.
Also from my limited experience: if I win a bunch I face tougher ships, not just tougher ships but I may also find myself in matches where the other players can be 400 points over me. Not fleeting either.
Now, If I lose a bunch then I'm in easy matches, not just easy matches but easy enough I could grab a coffee, come back and the friends could've dominated.

Explain to me rationally whether this 50/50 urban legend is factual, or if I've read something and postulated coincidences as proof.
I understand if you play well and raise your infamy you'll get tougher matches. If you play badly you get weaker matches. that's behind the other urban legend of seal clubbing, but the matchmaking at these outer edges of a win or lose streak seem to be excessive.

 

It's psychology. Humans like finding patterns in things, even when they don't exist, or at least they attribute it to the wrong thing. You tend to not notice the mundane, normal things. But when something you perceive you be out of the ordinary, your mind notices that. But, because of random chance and variability, these patterns happen and are normal. Each game is completely independent of itself in terms of match making. It is also probable that you play more brashly or recklessly when you lose because of the frustration. When you win, you feel more calm and collected and therefore you make more sound decisions. That is, until hubris and overconfidence takes over and makes you as reckless as if you lost.