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DevReply Event Piece Box published drop rate inaccurate?

Discussion in 'Bugs, Issues & Inquiries' started by envylife, 8 Oct 2018.

  1. envylife

    envylife Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    17 Jun 2017
    Messages:
    2,768
    This is what the Event Piece Box is supposed to give:

    Rare: 79%
    Epic: 20%
    Legendary: 1%

    Except... when you take into account the "1 Legendary per 10 draw guarantee" you might expect the drop to look like this:

    Rare: 69%
    Epic: 20%
    Legendary: 10%

    But... this is what I actually received over 168 boxes:

    Rare: 80.4% (Received 128, expected 116)
    Epic: 9.5% (Received 16, expected 34)
    Legendary: 10.1%. (Received 17, expected 17)

    You see complete convergence of the Published Rare drop rate of 70%, and of the unpublished "Guaranteed 1 in 10 Legendary drop rate", but the Epic rate remains the head scratcher. Did I have horrible luck? Was the the "guaranteed Legendary" originally supposed to be an Epic but upgraded due to the guarantee? The numbers say yes as the published Epic+Legendary=21%.. and the actual is a very close 19.6%. But that's not what happened here. Every one of my Legendary Pieces came on the 10th box... so in reality the Epic drop rate remains at half of the published rate.

    I opened a ticket with Rovio on this after receiving 2 Epic in 52 straight boxes (3.9% drop rate vs 20%), but the support rep confused the Perk box and the Piece box drop rates, so I corrected it, and then got no further responses.

    For a company that is obligated to publish accurate drop rates for loot boxes that can be bought with actual cash, this is an inexcusable oversight, and extremely poor customer service to boot. Rovio, you can do better... as your continuation to behave like this will result in less customers.
     
    envylife, 8 Oct 2018
    #1
  2. TheAntiSnipe

    TheAntiSnipe Moon's haunted

    Joined:
    11 Jun 2017
    Messages:
    9,118
    Location:
    Classified top secret ;-)

    In my opinion, the guaranteed leggy cannot be considered a part of the equation. It never is, not even in other games that have this *guaranteed leggy* system, like Honkai Impact 3rd or the other games I've played, like those card games and stuff.

    So technically you got 0% drop rate on your leggy, which fits to the 1% expected.

    The epics are on a 20% probability, which means 20 for every hundred pieces are epic. Over 168 boxes you got 16... But is that sample size really relevant?
     
    TheAntiSnipe, 8 Oct 2018
    #2
  3. YerJokinArnYer

    YerJokinArnYer MVP

    Joined:
    1 Oct 2017
    Messages:
    1,197
    Location:
    UK
    Yes you just had horrible luck.
    @TheAntiSnipe is correct your sample size is not statistically relevant.
    I’ve just built an excel model to do 164 draws, twelve times in a row.
    Here are my results:
    Unlucky draw: Rare 125, Epic 23, Legendary 16
    Luckiest draws: Rare 111, Epic 37, Legendary 16. Rare 13, Epic 23, Legendary 18
     
    YerJokinArnYer, 8 Oct 2018
    #3
    TheAntiSnipe likes this.
  4. Ash KOT

    Ash KOT MVP

    Joined:
    30 Aug 2017
    Messages:
    2,100
    What you have to remember, is every pull is independent.
    So every pull has the same odds, 79% rare, 20% epic and 1% legendary.
    If you had 100 pulls you could receive 100 rare items, this doesnt mean that the odds are wrong, just means that you didnt have the best luck.
     
    Ash KOT, 8 Oct 2018
    #4
    JoshW likes this.
  5. envylife

    envylife Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    17 Jun 2017
    Messages:
    2,768
    I agree I'm unlucky, but it is statistically significant. A sample size of 170 would give me 95% confidence that the Epic drop rate is accurate within a 6% margin of error. Excluding the guaranteed legendary would leave 153 draws... and that sample size would give me 95% confidence that the Epic drop rate is accurate within a 6.5% margin of error. My results are significantly outside that margin of error.
     
    envylife, 8 Oct 2018
    #5
  6. Ash KOT

    Ash KOT MVP

    Joined:
    30 Aug 2017
    Messages:
    2,100
    Statistically unlucky, not statistically impossible.
    Look at a coin toss, 50 / 50 chance of heads or tails.
    If you flipped 10 heads in a row, it doesnt mean the coin is broken, or the odds are not 50/50.
     
    Ash KOT, 9 Oct 2018
    #6
    ShipCrusherCz and NeptuneGaming like this.
  7. NeptuneGaming

    NeptuneGaming Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    23 May 2018
    Messages:
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    This is exactly what people dont understand
    They dont realise that 50/50 is only statistics and the'luck' factor is much bigger than the odds
     
    NeptuneGaming, 9 Oct 2018
    #7
  8. The Grim Repair

    The Grim Repair Community Manager

    Joined:
    26 Sep 2017
    Messages:
    860
    Hey everyone,

    the drop rates are accurate as shown - we tested it again, just to make sure. :)
     
    The Grim Repair, 10 Oct 2018
    #8
    StrictSalmon307, YerJokinArnYer and NeptuneGaming like this.
  9. NeptuneGaming

    NeptuneGaming Well-Known Member

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    23 May 2018
    Messages:
    265
    thx for confirming
     
    NeptuneGaming, 10 Oct 2018
    #9
  10. envylife

    envylife Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    17 Jun 2017
    Messages:
    2,768
    I really appreciate the response @The Grim Repair. Before spending my last 2-3000 coins I both opened a ticket with Rovio and asked players to confirm that their drop rates were not reflecting what I had been getting to try to decipher whether or not there was a systemic issue. Your support rep wasn't even able to locate the published drop rates, and I had just a single other player confirm that their drop rate was ok... so I spent the rest with no improvement. It is what it is, and as a result of this I'm glad we're moving onto another system.
     
    envylife, 10 Oct 2018
    #10

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