Monthly player nerf

Is it just me or does it seem like players get nerfed about once month before they are allowed fair play again? Ive noticed my infamy tanks about that often and looking around at other players who I KNOW are better than me gets nerfed also.
Is this a ploy on our emotions and determination to play or go nuts figuring out what we are doing wrong? Maybe a scheme to encourage the thought process to purchase to regain?

 

Are you talking about Nightmare league getting reset to 4000 infamy every season?

 

No. I feel like about once a month there will be 24-48 hour period where im straight up hosed no matter what. No matter the ship load out, no matter how many losses in a row, no matter how many times I double or triple the next guys damage....we lose.
The other day I doubled damage right? Friend defender, 8800 hp, unfriend shooter, 79. We lose. No matter what my team will lose. Its horrendous to go through and I know I dont suck that bad.

 

Being a super active playrr i notice this thing too

 

Yes. Super activity encourages it. Almost as if we should take a break

 

Sometimes I feel like my speeder is getting real slow. I know that different arena with different wave will result in speed difference. But this low speed im saying, it is not that. It just dont feel right. It happens sometimes, I think.

 

I suspect that if it’s not your imagination, then it is just coincidence.

Studies on gambling have shown that completely random reward sequences are the most addictive. So it’s in Rovio’s interest to keep games as close to 50/50 as possible, so that the outcomes are as unpredictable as a coin flip.

However these random sequences are also the most likely to elicit superstition, as your brain is hardwired to look for patterns, and it likes to err on the side of false positives. This is probably because (in an evolutionary context) the disadvantages of missing something that might aid survival, outway the disadvantages of seeing patterns that aren’t really there. Thus superstition is born.

Try alternating each month between rabbit feet, four leaf clovers, and lucky underpants. Eventually you’ll find one that seems to work!

 

It might be just bad luck... But, now that I read your post more carfully, it might be
1. have somthing to the game tring to balence your lose/win ratio to 50/50
2. bad luck
3. like you said, a scheme from the devs (highly unlikly, though)

 

Track your wins and losses in a spreadsheet.
Do this for a while (like a few months).
I bet you'll find that most of what you think you see is imagined.
Yes, streaks happen, but they're probably not as "bad" as you think, or as periodic as you think.

The only argument I could see for them being preriodically-predictable is that season rewards or rivalry rewards are distributed to the masses on a regular, periodic schedule. And if those rewards are big enough to be a significant "disruption" to the system, then yes, you might see some periodicity to your infamy fluctuations. However, then the question would be: if you're getting comparable rewards to everyone else around you... then why is [how much they benefit] different than [how much you benefit] from those rewards? Are you in a poor guild that never gets many rivalry rewards?

 

(this was a while ago, I usually go in streaks of 3]

 

Streaks (either winning or losing) of just 7 games in a row are quite common. Honestly, that's a small enough sample size for "luck" to actually play a factor. In other words: it probably means nothing.

But, show me a streak of 15+ games, and THAT would be an excellent indicator that someone is NOT where they should be infamy-wise.
Edit: Actually, I should clarify, it's probably misleading to look at "streaks" at all because those almost never happen to extreme #'s of games. What's important is whether W/L ratio changes drastically over a set period of time (a streak just happens to be an extreme W/L ratio). This is why you need to track games over a long period of time. Then you can look at larger trends in the data to draw meaningful conclusions...

If someone is now winning a lot (W/L ratio > 60% across no less than 50 matches)...
- perhaps they just had a nice gear upgrade
- perhaps they discovered how to better use a ship or weapon they've had all along
- perhaps they found the "perfect fleet partner" and had a nice session
- perhaps they have been watching the pros on YouTube and are employing new tips/tricks to increase their effectiveness in battle.

Or, if they're now losing a lot (W/L ratio < 40% across no less than 50 matches):
- perhaps they're using under-leveled or unfamiliar ships/weapons because they're trying to complete guild quests
- perhaps they are playing when tired/stressed/distracted
- perhaps you are trying a new strategy/tactic, and being stubborn about it... you don't realize you're losing because of it
- perhaps other players are getting better, and you are not

Even at a streak of 15 straight games, that's still less than +/- 400 infamy. That's not even that terribly massive a change.

If people are fluctuating more than 500 infamy one way or the other, it's not "luck". It's one of the things I listed above (or some combination).

 

With all that said I should probably not worry aout it so much. The guild im in isnt horrible. I choose to be there because better guilds tend to demand, yes demand more contributions towards quests. While I dont mind doing so, im in for the fun not the work. Ive been in working guilds. It isnt fun grinding on a crap quest burning infamy. I dont do that too often anymore.
Reguardless, I understand now its like a roulette table and honestly I shouldnt think much of the match up besides the fun of it.
I do however find it interesting if I chat with guildmates about a specific player, suddenly that player is in my matchups more often.
Good example is Banderas. Suddenly I played two against him after guild chat of his load out. In reguards to the gambling or 50/50 chance, we won one lost one. So, anything is possible as it seems.
Oddly enough I find myself winning more in the wee hours of the morning rather the evening. Im stateside so I assume either states players are waking up/warming up or im playing vs people over seas who possibly arent as seasoned?
Ive also found playing on weekends much more difficult.
I attribute that to the weekend warriors who work during the week and flat out suck on the weekend.
Not saying all people over seas arent salty, nor working class people. Only an observation.

I float around 4k infamy in which I recently collected my first NM rewards (tells you how long ive been in league) and am approaching 20k matches and recently hit 100m damage.
If that says anything to where my salt saturation level is or what and who im up against to factor in the variable for win loss ratios

 

Sounds like you will be much happier! Congratulations!
Good for you --> Good for the game --> Good for the rest of us. Win : Win : Win!!!

1 down.... the rest of the internet to go!.....................................................

(Edit: Apparently this post can be seen as condescending. Please read my clarification in my next post immediately below.)

 

Reading this again to myself... I can see how this might seem like a condescending message. That's not at all how I intended it though. I personally believe that there are many players out there who get unnecessarily frustrated with the games they play because they may not understand how (ranking or matchmaking or whatever) systems work. Anytime I can explain or clarify something for someone and that reduces their frustration, I consider that a huge win. I really do hope your Battle Bay experience is better moving forward. Because I really do think that when you're happy, that helps the game in any number of tangible and intangible ways, which is a positive for everyone else who also likes the game. So... hopefully that's what came across in my message. Sometimes I type stuff (like my message above), and in my very excited mental state think only about how wonderful it could come across (because that's what's obvious to my brain), and I forget to take the time to think about how other's might interpret it...

 

I totally took it as condescending too. Glad you clarified.
I thoroughly enjoy this game and dont plan on not playing for a long time.
Tax returns are just around the corner too. Muahaha. First time ill be able to actually purchase something in game that is decent other than VIP.

 

Haha, yeah, glad I clarified too!

When you read it as not-condescending, you begin to realize just how much of an optimistic super-dork I really am...

 

That sounds like the Baader-Meinhof phenomenon, which is another type of cognitive bias.

Explained (and mispronounced) here: