Please confirm Event Piece Box give rate this time around...

Not to be nit picky, but if you pull 100 times with a 1% chance each time, you still only have a 1% chance for a legendary overall - you just have more chances to land on that one in a hundred.

 

If you need powercells for those upgrades this link will help.

Yes, your chance is 1% throughout but the probability is 10%. Sorry if that was unclear

 

To finish off this thread, this time around, for me anyway, the Epic give rate was 11.5% (3 Epics on the way to a Legendary Perk). That averages out to 5.1% over the past 78 straight Event Piece Boxes... "slightly" lower than the published 20%. YMMV.

 

Also in case anyone's curious, here's how drop rates look like over a certain number of attempts (for a piece box). If you open a single box with a 1% chance to get a legendary piece, there's a 1% chance to get a legendary piece (duh), this looks like 1 - (drop chance)^attempts, or 1-0.99^1 = 0.01, or 1%.
Two attempts would be 1-0.99^2 = 1.99% chance to get a legendary piece from two crates total.
That means that after opening 69 boxes, you would have a 50% chance of getting a legendary piece somewhere at the end of opening them all.
Finally, after 100 boxes opened (1-0.99^100), you would have a 63.4% chance of getting a legendary piece.
This also means that you could go your entire life and never get a legendary piece from the 1% drop. The chance to get a legendary pieces approaches 100%, but you're never actually guaranteed one (except for ones you get for every 10th box)

 

Then if you do happen to get lucky and hit a Legendary piece before the 10th Box, the box count resets.

 

I believe the box counts carry over week to week. This is probably why it looks like you got lucky and then the count reset. Unless this is happening after purchasing 10+ boxes, is this the case?

 

As much as I love math and stats, I don't feel like going into it here.

But, I will say that it's easier if you remove the boxes that give you a legendary piece from your calculation.


If you purchase 10 boxes, you'd expect to get 2 epic pieces on average .. but, more often than not, you'll be disappointed.

Why? Assuming you don't RNG the 1% leg piece, that 10th box is already determined. So, in effect, only 9 of the boxes were using the stated percentages. Thus, you have less than a 40% chance of RNGing 2 epic item pieces. (I understand that's not how multiple draws and multiple outcomes works for probability, but I'm using those numbers for simplicity's sake).

I acknowledge there is a very small chance of only pulling 2 epic pieces from 52 boxes .. and there might be something there to explore (like some lowering of percentages for mass purchases) .. but, idk, that hasn't been my experience.

 

Agreed, and I already did that in this thread showing the difference was negligible.

Here's the updated version: 78 Draws, 5 Epics. That's either a 6.4% or a 7.1% drop rate if you eliminate the Legendary Pieces in the latter. Either way it's 1/3 of the expected drop rate over a very large number of box openings. For me, all RNG in this game has been significantly lower than expected results, but YMMV.