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3/2/18 Item Popularity Snapshot

Discussion in 'Game Discussion' started by Epicular, 4 Mar 2018.

  1. Epicular

    Epicular Well-Known Member

    Joined:
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    Occupation:
    Creator of BayStats
    Hello, Battle Bay Forums! After each balance change, I post an item popularity snapshot over on Reddit, which is a report consisting of the use rates of each ship and item within the Nightmare League, and a basic analysis of the data. Somebody suggested putting this on the forums, so here I am!
    You can view the original post at: https://www.reddit.com/r/battlebay/comments/81lpao/item_popularity_snapshot_3218_2/
    The original post begins below:

    Hey everyone, I'm back with some more stats on item use rates in the Nightmare League.

    These stats were collected from 250 players residing in the world's top guilds. Players had to have an infamy above 4000 to be included in the data set. For more on how I collect the data, see my first (informal) snapshot at the following link: https://www.reddit.com/r/battlebay/...opularity_snapshot/?ref=share&ref_source=link.

    The effects of the new balance changes are settling in, and the damages have been assessed. Let's get into some numbers...

    But first, two quick reminders: 1) Use rates aren't necessarily a definitive indicator of an item's overall strength, and 2) You should never build your loadout solely around these stats. Nothing beats a highly upgraded weapon that you feel comfortable with.

    Without further ado: ship use rates! (the third number indicates the percentage change from my last snapshot about two months ago...)

    Ship Use Rates
    Code:
         Shooter:  94 (37.6%) -6.0
        Enforcer:  50 (20.0%) +9.6
           Fixer:  45 (18.0%) +7.6
         Speeder:  41 (16.4%) -11.2
        Defender:  20 (8.0%)  +0.0
    
    Overall, the gaps between ship use rates have shrunk. Speeder took a big hit in this snapshot. Enforcer made most of the gains, alongside the Fixer. Shooter lost a bit of ground but is still holding fast above all the other ships. Defender remains stubbornly at the bottom of this snapshot.

    Red Items
    Code:
            Sniper Cannon: 150 (60.0%) -10.0
         Explosive Cannon: 111 (44.4%) -4.4
             Blast Cannon: 104 (41.6%) +8.8
                Flare Gun:  78 (31.2%) +2.8
                     Mine:  74 (29.6%) +12.8
                Fire Bomb:  54 (21.6%) +0.8
         Missile Launcher:  52 (20.8%) -2.8
              Big Torpedo:  51 (20.4%) +2.8
                  Railgun:  40 (16.0%) -2.0
         Grenade Launcher:  36 (14.4%) +5.6
          Napalm Launcher:  31 (12.4%) +0.8
            Swift Torpedo:  20 (8.0%)  -3.2
                Carronade:  14 (5.6%)  -0.8
          Ballpark Mortar:  11 (4.4%)  +0.0
               Big Bertha:   8 (3.2%)  -4.0
                   Cannon:   5 (2.0%)  -4.8
        Long Range Mortar:   5 (2.0%)  -2.8
          Standard Mortar:   3 (1.2%)  -0.8
           Triple Torpedo:   3 (1.2%)  -5.2
    
    Sniper Cannon took the biggest fall; fewer players are stacking their shooters 3 snipers high, as the reduced Speeder presence has rendered them less useful. Despite that, it still remains the most popular weapon choice overall. Explosive Cannon held surprisingly strong, considering the nasty double-nerf it took recently. Even so, its nerfs opened the door for increased Blast Cannon usage, which saw big gains as a great alternative for a pure damage weapon.

    The Big Torpedo continues to distance itself as the only torpedo seeing much use, and the Mortars collectively remain rare sights. As an overall weapon family, Cannons continue to dominate the scene for their quick, assured, heavy damage (aside from the poor Standard Cannon of course). This is also in part due to their huge damage bonuses with fire, as seen by the high positions of Flare Gun and Fire Bomb.

    Perhaps the most surprising development here is the jump in Mine usage. It has suddenly become a more popular option for Enforcers, Fixers, and sometimes even Shooters.

    Yellow Items
    Code:
               Overboost: 122 (48.8%) +2.0
            Tesla Shield: 108 (43.2%) +11.2
                   Nitro:  46 (18.4%) +3.6
              Tesla Bolt:  36 (14.4%) -12.4
          Frost Launcher:   3 (1.2%)  +0.4
           Frost Blaster:   3 (1.2%)  -2.0
    
    Since 54.4% of the ships in this snapshot have Yellow item slots, Overboost remains a very popular item. However, the effects of the nerf to Tesla Bolt are quite apparent here; it has sunk in usage considerably, giving almost all of its ground to the Tesla Shield, which has found a great home in a meta filled with Cannons. In fact, much of the Shield's rise in usage can be attributed to the new Enforcers carrying double Shields instead of one Shield and one Bolt.

    Meanwhile, the Frost items remain completely useless.

    Blue Items
    Code:
                   Turbo: 241 (96.4%) -1.2
              Big Shield: 201 (80.4%) -7.6
                 Bandage: 122 (48.8%) -12.0
            Small Shield: 121 (48.4%) +5.6
               Gear Lube:   4 (1.6%)  +0.4
                  Rudder:   4 (1.6%)  -0.8
    
    Things in the Blue Item world pretty much remain business as usual. Turbo maintains its spot as practically an auto-include item for all ship types. More players seem to be favoring Small Shields over Bandages, likely as a result of Fixers becoming a much more frequent sight. Rudder and Gear Lube are still totally benched.

    Green Items
    Code:
               Repair Pulse:  78 (31.2%) +12.4
                Repair Bolt:  34 (13.6%) +8.4
        Repair Box Launcher:  16 (6.4%)  +2.4
                  Duct Tape:   7 (2.8%)  +0.0
    
    Since Fixers became more common, no Green item took a loss this time. Repair Pulse becomes even more of a no-brainer, because what else are you going to do with all those green slot points? Repair Box Launcher loses considerable ground to Repair Bolt; it simply doesn't compare to the Bolt's level of healing and ease of use. Duct Tape is the real loser of this snapshot, as it is further isolated from the rest of the healing options.

    (continued on the following post)
     
    Last edited: 4 Mar 2018
  2. Epicular

    Epicular Well-Known Member

    Joined:
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    Occupation:
    Creator of BayStats
    (continuation)
    Popularity by Ship Type

    The following is an alternative compilation of the data that looks at how items are used on individual ships. There's a lot of info here, and some of it is pretty interesting, but I'm not going to go in any detailed explanation. Feel free to sift through it all and form conclusions on your own.
    Code:
        ===================================
                Shooter Usage Stats
        ===================================
            Sniper Cannon: 108 (114.9%)
                    Turbo: 94 (100.0%)
               Big Shield: 92 (97.9%)
         Explosive Cannon: 63 (67.0%)
                  Bandage: 61 (64.9%)
                Fire Bomb: 49 (52.1%)
         Missile Launcher: 49 (52.1%)
              Big Torpedo: 37 (39.4%)
                  Railgun: 33 (35.1%)
             Small Shield: 33 (35.1%)
             Blast Cannon: 21 (22.3%)
          Napalm Launcher: 20 (21.3%)
                     Mine: 19 (20.2%)
                Flare Gun: 18 (19.1%)
          Ballpark Mortar: 10 (10.6%)
            Swift Torpedo: 10 (10.6%)
               Big Bertha:  7 (7.4%)
         Grenade Launcher:  7 (7.4%)
                Carronade:  5 (5.3%)
        Long Range Mortar:  5 (5.3%)
          Standard Mortar:  3 (3.2%)
           Triple Torpedo:  3 (3.2%)
                   Cannon:  2 (2.1%)
                Gear Lube:  1 (1.1%)
                   Rudder:  1 (1.1%)
    
        ===================================
                Defender Usage Stats
        ===================================
            Small Shield: 36 (180.0%)
              Big Shield: 21 (105.0%)
                   Turbo: 20 (100.0%)
                 Bandage: 18 (90.0%)
        Explosive Cannon: 15 (75.0%)
            Blast Cannon: 13 (65.0%)
               Flare Gun:  8 (40.0%)
           Sniper Cannon:  5 (25.0%)
             Big Torpedo:  5 (25.0%)
        Grenade Launcher:  4 (20.0%)
               Gear Lube:  3 (15.0%)
               Carronade:  2 (10.0%)
                 Railgun:  2 (10.0%)
         Napalm Launcher:  2 (10.0%)
                    Mine:  2 (10.0%)
        Missile Launcher:  1 (5.0%)
           Swift Torpedo:  1 (5.0%)
                  Rudder:  1 (5.0%)
    
        ===================================
              Speeder Usage Stats
        ===================================
               Overboost: 41 (100.0%)
              Big Shield: 41 (100.0%)
                   Turbo: 41 (100.0%)
                 Bandage: 33 (80.5%)
                   Nitro: 30 (73.2%)
            Tesla Shield: 28 (68.3%)
        Explosive Cannon: 22 (53.7%)
               Flare Gun: 21 (51.2%)
              Tesla Bolt: 21 (51.2%)
            Blast Cannon: 16 (39.0%)
           Sniper Cannon:  9 (22.0%)
            Small Shield:  8 (19.5%)
        Grenade Launcher:  4 (9.8%)
             Big Torpedo:  3 (7.3%)
               Carronade:  2 (4.9%)
                    Mine:  2 (4.9%)
        Missile Launcher:  2 (4.9%)
           Frost Blaster:  2 (4.9%)
                  Cannon:  1 (2.4%)
          Frost Launcher:  1 (2.4%)
    
        ===================================
                Enforcer Usage Stats
        ===================================
            Tesla Shield: 80 (160.0%)
            Blast Cannon: 48 (96.0%)
               Overboost: 47 (94.0%)
              Big Shield: 46 (92.0%)
                   Turbo: 43 (86.0%)
               Flare Gun: 28 (56.0%)
                    Mine: 25 (50.0%)
        GreNade Launcher: 20 (40.0%)
           Sniper Cannon: 18 (36.0%)
              Tesla Bolt: 15 (30.0%)
                 Bandage: 10 (20.0%)
           Swift Torpedo:  6 (12.0%)
                   Nitro:  6 (12.0%)
               Carronade:  4 (8.0%)
          Frost Launcher:  2 (4.0%)
         Ballpark Mortar:  1 (2.0%)
            Small Shield:  1 (2.0%)
    
        ===================================
                Fixer Usage Stats
        ===================================
               Repair Pulse: 78 (173.3%)
               Small Shield: 43 (95.6%)
                      Turbo: 43 (95.6%)
                  Overboost: 34 (75.6%)
                Repair Bolt: 34 (75.6%)
                       Mine: 26 (57.8%)
        Repair Box Launcher: 16 (35.6%)
           Explosive Cannon: 11 (24.4%)
              Sniper Cannon: 10 (22.2%)
                      Nitro: 10 (22.2%)
            Napalm Launcher:  9 (20.0%)
                  Duct Tape:  7 (15.6%)
               Blast Cannon:  6 (13.3%)
                Big Torpedo:  6 (13.3%)
                    Railgun:  5 (11.1%)
                  Fire Bomb:  5 (11.1%)
                  Flare Gun:  3 (6.7%)
              Swift Torpedo:  3 (6.7%)
                     Cannon:  2 (4.4%)
                     Rudder:  2 (4.4%)
                  Carronade:  1 (2.2%)
                 Big Bertha:  1 (2.2%)
           Grenade Launcher:  1 (2.2%)
              Frost Blaster:  1 (2.2%)
                 Big Shield:  1 (2.2%)
    
    Conclusion

    Thanks for looking through all that - overall this report took several hours to put together, so I hope you found some of it helpful or interesting.

    Originally, I said I was going to do a new Snapshot right at the end of every season, but this ended up being silly because there are never any interesting changes in the data without the help of a balance update. Ultimately it would've been a waste of time. So, I'm now going to compile a new report after every balance change, or whenever I see a significant shift in the meta.

    Thanks for reading! Any thoughts, opinions, feedback, or conclusions drawn from the data?
     
  3. Hokuse

    Hokuse Well-Known Member

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    Wow nice work i like it, thank you for share :D
     
    Ian likes this.
  4. Ian

    Ian Well-Known Member

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    Awesome data collection and analysis! We need more people like you in the community. Never would I have expected speeder usage to drop so low. You are definitely right about the standard shield increase due to more fixers, that's what I have done on my setup.
    I think mines will continue to grow in popularity slowly over the upcoming seasons.
     
    Last edited: 4 Mar 2018
    ThatOnion, Hokuse and The Otherguy like this.
  5. Snapshot

    Snapshot Well-Known Member

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    I agree with @Ian -- awesome work on both the data collection and then you're TL;DR analysis.
     
  6. Epicular

    Epicular Well-Known Member

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    Creator of BayStats
    Thanks guys. Yeah I don't see mine usage dropping until a direct nerf comes by - I think that now people have realized the potential they carry, they won't let go anytime soon.
     
    Rainbow Warrior likes this.
  7. Shadow Moon!

    Shadow Moon! Well-Known Member

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    Time to nerf speeders still too many there right? @Kitterini
    Good work @Epicular keep it up.
     
    Last edited: 5 Mar 2018
    ThatOnion likes this.
  8. *JAWS*

    *JAWS* Well-Known Member

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    Good work on the snap shot!

    Defenders overdue for a buff. Massively so. Still. Lol.
    And speeders now the 4th used ship. Wow.
    Might be due an agility buff.

    Until devs start buffing the most underused ship every 6 months. This game will be imballanced. They did it for enforcer. Plus nerfed every single item that would knock down an enforcer shield.

    Its time to do the same for big blue.
     
  9. Terry Morgan

    Terry Morgan Well-Known Member

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    Look at top ten. Still alot of yellow! Many banaas are fatter but still alot of yellow!
     
  10. Epicular

    Epicular Well-Known Member

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    I think part of why Defender is considered to be so weak is because it's getting the stiff end of two blue-item worlds. Hear me out...
    Turbo raises speed by a percentage. Shield raises HP by a flat number.
    Percentage increases are advantageous to classes for which that stat is already very high. (example: Turbo is very effective on Speeder because Speeder's base speed stat is already so high)
    Likewise, flat increases are advantageous to classes for which that stat is very low. (example: Shields are very effective on Speeder because Speeder's base HP is very low)
    See, this is where Defender is getting totally shafted. Turbo isn't effective on it because the percentage increase hardly impacts its speed stat. And Shields aren't very effective either, because Defender already has a high base HP - the HP increase is just a drop in the bucket. Not to mention that Defender is supposed to be the ship that specializes in blue items!
    I think this is a subtle, yet nasty oversight that is really hurting the Defender.
     
  11. nosesabe

    nosesabe Well-Known Member

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    Thx for the very needed data! I wish we could have data not only from nighmare
     
  12. envylife

    envylife Well-Known Member

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    Excellent compilation!
     
  13. HELLRAZOR

    HELLRAZOR Well-Known Member

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    Good work now why don't you get paid to do this sort of stuff by the company ? I'm not sure what this will accomplish as it's just data & players pick & choose as they want, so how will this make the game any better ? It's just the stats for nightmare players & not players in lower classes being matched up with bad players trying to get to nightmare league, still waiting to get better weapons or matching items.
     
  14. Shadow Moon!

    Shadow Moon! Well-Known Member

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    These statistics show us which items are over powered and which items are weak and need of balancing the items or ships.
    This snapshot show us that shooters and enforcers are currently overpowered and then followed by fixers.
    Speeders and defenders are least used boats because they aren't offering that much.
     
    Warchin3 likes this.
  15. Kitterini

    Kitterini Well-Known Member

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    Brilliant, thanks for sharing it here!

    What logic lies behind which players gets included in your stats? You look at x amount of guilds and use all players <4k with whatever boat they currently have active? Id be very interested to see you apply your excelent model to the top x players and see if (and how) results differ.
    —-
    I like how posting numbers makes people assume you hate their colour of boat. I play 3 different boats, Fixer, defender and (surprise?) speeder!

    If you look at the current top 50 then you´ll find 11 speeders present. Thats slightly above the expected average, so the sky isnt exactly falling :)
     
    LimeOnMars and Babablacksheep like this.
  16. Shadow Moon!

    Shadow Moon! Well-Known Member

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    Sky has fallen for all mk5 though as I already said I don't care about what happens in nightmare league.
     
  17. rexaroni

    rexaroni Member

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    This is a fantastic insight.

    The data presented is also very interesting. Thanks for your hard work!
     

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